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Kamis, 27 Desember 2007

Dollar us can't strong again

The dollar has fallen into the board after a weaker than expected in the United States entries goods long-lived magazine, the increase in concern that the Fed, interest rates may reduce by at least once or twice during the first half of next year. The currency weakened to 1.4640, and against the euro fell to around 113.60 against the yen.

Use of goods Backlog increased 0.1% in November to 0.2% after a decline during the previous month, well below the estimate of 2.0%. Without transportation, major durable consumer goods fell by 0.7%, compared to the estimate of 0.3% and a month before ¡¯ s reading of -0.4%. Use of property of the defence without increased from 1.2% above the estimate of 0.4%. According to the report, the dollar plunged to a very low 1.45 to 1.46 at the approach vis-à-vis the euro.

Other data released today, had little impact on the foreign exchange market. Weekly initial claims rose from 346k to 342.5k as planned. Consumer confidence in the United States has risen from 87.3 to 88.6, hope to beat 86.5.


BOE rate-cut speculation came last week

Sterling feel to a record low against the euro on concern that the Bank of England cut its interest rates again in the beginning of next year. The greenback is soft line on the whole momentum as market participants took profits.

The BOE rate-cut speculation came last week, when the Bank of England publishes its December monetary policy meeting minutes, with a unanimous vote for a 25-bp rate cut this month. In addition, the impact of the recent banking turmoil in the financial markets and the resulting credit market tightness on the economy and inflation. The BOE and Fed probably both have are a couple of interest rate cuts in the coming years, which has a weight on their currencies.

In contrast, the European Central Bank may have its benchmark rate unchanged. The euro rose to 0.7311 against the pound sterling, tested, and a resistor, to 1.45 against the dollar.

Rabu, 26 Desember 2007

Christmas shopping

he nation's retailers, reduced prices on Wednesday, hoping that a post Christmas shopping holiday rush rescue turnover, so far, also have modest expectations. They expect, especially for the legions of buyers armed with gift cards in a snap prices and buy a new product, just click "on the shelves.

Retailers in recent years have received a lot to catch Bounce discounts at the clearance, and they are in the position of hoping that the prices of hunting by consumers came at the end. Gift Cards are not registered until they pay Shopper.

However, investors are more pessimistic about this holiday season and the financial well-being of consumers in difficult economic circumstances. The share of most retailers fell Wednesday.

"Shoppers think twice what they are buying," said Jennifer Schwarz, the president of Jennifer Black & Associates, a firm Equity Research in Lake Oswego, Ore.. "It's a feeling of fear."

Black, along with other analysts, towers centers in New Jersey and Oregon, the finding that the gift cards buyer remained stingy on Wednesday, focusing on the cost bids, despite charges merchants.

"My son has a gift tickets for clothing, and I work with the birds, I thought, whereas most of my money," says Susan Depetris, loading discounted pants and pullover in a caddy Kohl's, Medford, Mass. They do not plan to search for gifts for all the others. She had only one person in the head, while their purchases -.

The International Council of Shopping Centers said Wednesday that same-store sales, sale or other companies to open at least one year during the period between the months of November and December, are already in the next fair below expectations for a slim 2.5% gain If she told a post - Christmas protzen purchase, the deficit of deleting them. The contrast prelude to an evaluation of its chief economist, Michael P. Niemira, who predicts that, after the weekend off at least of projected revenues could satisfy.

Target Corp. warned late Monday that its sales decline could even store for the month of December. Pending a large runway revealed consumer spending, which MasterCard Advisors - an industry credit cards of the company - the estimates for expenditure and cash cheques, Tuesday reported an increase of 3 .6 percent from November 23 until December 24, the low end of expectations. Compared with 6.6 percent of profits in the period of the previous year. Without gas purchases, sales rose only 2.4 percent of holiday.

"The ingredients were not because for a blockbuster of the season," said Michael McNamara, vice president, research and analysis of MasterCard Advisors. "And retailers have, in many ways, mostly in the off season, they could, on the basis of the environment."

The increase in oil prices, an escalation of the crisis of credit and a body falling Shopper caution, a trend that is reflected in a weakening of the growth in sales throughout the year, said McNamara. Shoppers stores at the beginning of the season, but has kept for the most part by offering in December to return to the charge for one minute spending spree when the prices are even better.

To encourage businesses, recorded earlier were with aggressive discounting, increasing concern over the profits of retailers in this decisive phase. The Christmas season accounts for 30 percent of the annual business sales. For sellers of toys, holiday business as much as 50 percent.

A more accurate census of retailers, as it will not be given arrive until at least January 10th, for the major retailers report same-store sales for the month of December. Traders are planned for the fourth quarter to report earnings in February.

The biggest losers are the women who are already among the lowest in the country and see their gains hardest hit, analysts said. But there are signs that business could softening luxury. At Houston's upscale Galleria Mall, the luxury MM-store Bernini was empty, while 70 percent of the biggest characters.

"People are spending less, and they are not really selective," said the seller McMakin Cleveland, he called the worst season of his three years Bernini.

In addition, leather jackets $ 995 marked down to $ 299 and $ 595 Blazer is sold for $ 179 not to spark optimism.

"We have never marked this stuff down low," said McMakin. "We should first try to sell them."

Woes dealer may be good news for buyers, who are not bombarded with more generous discounts in the Christmas season, after one year ago, industry officials said. Susan Valentine, Senior Vice President of Marketing at Mall operators Macerich Co. Said discounts on leave, the decor has reached 75 percent during the last year at this time, the scenery has been reduced by up to 60 percent. Accordingly, the undergarment, reduced to 70 percent, during the past year, the price cuts of about 50 percent.

On a Kohl's Corp. store in Lisbon, Conn., Maggie Challinor planned to buy a coat for Christmas, she received the card from her husband. Gift Cards contributed to the family to keep its budget for Christmas, she said. "We spent less. Really We distribution."

Barbara Gagne, in the same Kohl's, returned two pair of pants and credit to buy a blouse marked $ 55 to $ 11.

"I am here for the prices," she said.

The post-Christmas has become important with the growing popularity of gift cards. According to the National Retail Federation, consumers expect a total of 26.3 billion in gift cards this holiday time, 42 percent of the $ 18.5 billion in the year 2005.

ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said that the week after Christmas accounts for about 16 percent of the total distribution of holidays.

Associated Press Writers Susan Haigh, in Lisbon, Conn., Dale Wetzel Bismarck, ND Deanna Martin in Indianapolis and Melissa Trujillo in Boston, and Liz Austin Peterson in Houston contributed to this report.

Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material shall not be published, and much more, the transcript or the other.

Selasa, 25 Desember 2007

what hapen with japan curency on hollyday season

The yen fell against high-yield currencies, such as the increase in European and Asian stocks encouraged investors in the carry trades. The dollar reached the highest compared to 114.46 yen, the euro rose to about 100 pips 164.87.

The euro rose to a new high of all times to 0.7288 against the British pound on concern that the economy is slowing down and the Bank of England may continue to cut interest rates next year. In contrast, the European Central Bank is able to keep rates unchanged in 2008.

Foreign Exchange trading volume today is reduced to about a quarter of normal levels because of the holiday in Japan and the Christmas eve in the United States, Canada and European countries.

Sabtu, 22 Desember 2007

Uk Lowest since 1980

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The number of first-time buyers in the UK housing market fell to the lowest level this year since 1980, the country's biggest mortgage lender said.

In its annual First Time Buyer Review, Halifax said an estimated 300,000 first time buyers entered the housing market this year, down 5 pct from last year, and down substantially from 532,000 five years ago.

The review also found that average property prices were unaffordable for new buyers in 96 pct of towns this year, unchanged from last year. They were unaffordable in all the towns in South West England, East Anglia, East Midlands, Yorkshire & the Humber, and Northern Ireland.

This comes as the average house price paid by first-time buyers jumped by 15 pct year-on-year to 175,093 stg from 151,720, and compared with 95,994 stg in 2002. The increases were led by Northern Ireland, London and South East England.

The average house price for new buyers is more than 120,000 stg in all regions of the UK except North England, where it is 116,223 stg.

Other findings showed that for the first time, flats are now the most common purchase alongside terraces for first-time buyers this year.

Terraces are historically the most popular choice, and made up 37 pct of sales to first-time buyers, down 7 pct from last year. However, sales of flats and maisonettes to first-time buyers rose 13 pct, raising its proportion of total sales to new buyers to 37 pct.

The review also found that the average deposit paid by new buyers has risen to 34,381 stg, 20 pct higher than average full-time earnings. This is an increase from 28,169 stg last year, which was 19 pct above average full-time earnings.

First-time buyers accounted for 29 pct of all new mortgages in the UK this year, whereas five years ago, they accounted for 34 pct.

chinny.li@thomson.com

cml/ejp

COPYRIGHT

Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.

Selasa, 18 Desember 2007

eur/usd has oversold so be carfull to make danger for all trader

crisis us still continue

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – The Euro reached a new low against the Dollar, and, according to Cornelius Luca, economist at Global Forex Trading, it has entered into oversold territory: “Euro/dollar sank to a new low for the downtrend early Monday but ended the day basically unchanged. There may be a head-and-shoulders formation targeting 1.4085, but the pair is oversold in the short term so the next immediate move should be up.” Resistance and support levels, according to Luca, stand as follows: “Initial resistance is seen at 1.4490. The next level is 1.4525. Above 1.4635, strong resistance is seen at 1.4750. Immediate support is at 1.4354. A break below this Fibonacci retracement level would suggest a test of 1.4290. Below 1.4250, euro/dollar has good support at 1.4165.”


© 2007 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, with the thousands of documents available, often uploaded within short deadlines, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. Any republication or redistribution of FXstreet.com content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of FXstreet.com.

Minggu, 16 Desember 2007

GBP/JPY - 210.00 Before 250.00 Is a Possibility

The GBPJPY is on many traders minds as the pair approaches the 240.00 figure (again). The pair has recovered about 62% of its July-August drop from 251.10 to 219.30 but individual patterns in both legs of the cross and the cross itself warn that now is not the time to turn bullish for a test of the high.

A simple RSI study suggests that the GBPJPY may be in for a much bigger decline. In this chart, the bars are painted red to signal when RSI is below 40 and blue to signal when RSI is above 60. The blue and red designate the trend as bullish or bearish. The black bars are more or less consolidation periods. If a trader were using this information in a strategy, directionality would be determined by the last colored bar (blue or red). Since 1998, there have been 5 bearish signals. The first one was obviously good. The next 3 were false and the most recent signal occurred in August. The advance since should be viewed as a consolidation.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the rally from 192.62 occurred following the breakout of a triangle. Triangles lead to terminal thrusts. In other words, price comes back to the center of the triangle following completion of the breakout rally. The rally is in 5 waves (not labeled but the form is clear), indicating a high probability that a top is in place at 251.10. In this case, the center of the triangle is near 200.00.

Jumat, 14 Desember 2007

USA support can't make strong usa dollar

The greenback garnered fresh support against the majors in the Thursday session on the heels of the US economic reports released earlier in the morning. The dollar bounced higher to 1.4578 against the euro and 2.0345 versus the sterling, while the yen continued to recoup from yesterday’s central bank induced losses. US equities managed to stage a rebound in afternoon trading to near breakeven for the day after slumping earlier in the session.

The data released in the morning consisted of weekly jobless claims, retail sales and the producer price index. Weekly jobless claims slipped to 333k, down from 338k in the previous week. Retail sales surprised to the upside, with the excluding autos figure jumping by 1.8% in November versus 0.2% from the previous month. The headline reading for retail sales rose by 1.2% from 0.2%. Meanwhile, inflation data released earlier validated the FOMC’s decision to ease by 25-basis points earlier in the week, instead of succumbing to overwhelming market demands for a 50-bp ease. November PPI posted its largest monthly gain since 1973 at 3.2%, while core prices rose by 0.4%. The inflation report will likely prevent the FOMC from easing aggressively and will shift the focus to tomorrow’s CPI inflation report.

Also worth noting, former Fed Chairman Greenspan raised his chances for a US economic recession to 50%, up from 30%. Traders will continue to closely monitor US reports for any signs of further deterioration and evidence of spillover from the housing market woes and financial market turbulence on the economy as a whole, particularly consumer confidence and consumption.

Kamis, 13 Desember 2007

importan report today Japan Outlook: BOJ Tankan Survey, IHI Reports 1H Results

Japan Outlook: BOJ Tankan Survey, IHI Reports 1H Results

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Here are the major economic events scheduled in Japan on Friday. All times refer to GMT.


INDICATORS
(GMT) PERIOD FORECAST PREVIOUS
2350 Bank of Japan's Tankan Dec 21 23
Corporate Sentiment Survey
0100 Electric Power Output Nov N/A +2.6% Y/Y
-
EVENTS
N/A News conferences after morning Cabinet meeting:
-Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga
-Economy Minister Hiroko Ota
-Banking Minister Yoshimi Watanabe
-Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura
-Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Akira
Amari
N/A Government's Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy
meets.
0130 Ministry of Finance announces two-year government
bond amount for Dec. 21 auction.
-
CORPORATE EVENTS
0500 IHI Corp. (7013.TO) reports earnings for the first
half ended Sept. 30.


-Tokyo Bureau, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-5255-2929

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

Japan govermet make yen strong with carry trade only this way not another way

Once again, the risk attributes of the Japanese yen were binding the currency to a sharp rally in equities and general risk acceptance after the Federal Reserve announced it, along with a number of other central banks, were putting into effect a new plan to correct the persistent credit crunch. A more than 100 point USDJPY rally was triggered before US exchanges opened for trade as the pair tracked Dow equity futures higher. However, this correlation broke down when the Dow marked a sharp pull back when the New York evening session. From the economic docket, inflation data was in focus with the upstream DCGPI figure for November on tap. Though, a more modest than expected pull back in inflation pressures hardly raised the chances for a rate hike any time soon. Looking ahead, yen traders will likely keep an eye on the SNB decision as a general guide to the health of the carry trade

Rabu, 12 Desember 2007

What happen with FED so weak

Treasurys drop on Fed credit plan

Wed, Dec 12 2007, 20:59 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com

NEW YORK (AP) - Treasury prices plunged dramatically Wednesday after the Federal Reserve and other central banks announced an ambitious, coordinated that program investors hope will avert a year-end liquidity crisis.

The announcement soothed mounting investor anxieties a dearth of funding in late month that could further slow the economy, sparking sharp gains for stocks and sending Treasury prices reeling and yields sharply higher. The prospect of more available credit lessened investors' need for the safe haven that government securities provide.

The Fed announced a deal with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank to create a temporary auction facility to keep banks funded.

The central banks' action was designed to address "elevated pressures" in credit markets, according to the Fed. The pact also will include setting up lines of credit with the European Central Bank and the Swiss Central Bank that could be used for additional resources.

Although the international problems caused by the global spread of bad U.S. mortgage debt are serious and unwieldy, analysts said the concerted effort should, at minimum, produce temporary benefits.

"This is a massive, historical liquidity injection," said T.J. Marta, fixed-income analyst at RBC Capital Markets. "There is no silver bullet because the problems are so massive, but this is a very significant step."

The likelihood that the program will at least diminish short-term market stress also should reduce the unusually heavy demand for Treasurys seen in recent weeks.

"The facility should reduce funding pressure and, in as much as it does improve liquidity, there will be less fear of a huge system failure at year end," said Kim Rupert, managing director for fixed-income at Action Economics. "And that reduced demand for Treasurys."

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 1 17/32 to 100 28/32 with a yield of 4.14 percent, up sharply from 3.97 percent late Tuesday.

The 30-year long bond plunged 1 14/32 to 106 23/32 with a yield of 4.58 percent, up from 4.47 percent late Tuesday.

The 2-year note gave up 16/32 to 99 28/32 with a yield of 3.19 percent, up from 2.92 percent late Tuesday.

Unusually heavy selling Wednesday caused Treasury prices to give back all the gains registered just one day before when the Federal Reserve put in place a rate decision that was not as generous as many investors hoped for.

The Fed on Tuesday ordered 0.25 percentage point reductions in both the overnight federal funds target and the discount rate, the interest at which it makes loans to commercial banks. The action was viewed by many investors as too paltry, given the unusual pressures that problems in the subprime mortgage sector have put on global financial markets this year.

Severely shaken investors Tuesday staged a heavy stocks sell-off while funneling large amounts of money into Treasurys.

The Fed's foreign exchange swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank under the new program should allow the central banks to help stabilize the entire London interbank loan, or LIBOR, system, according to RBC Capital Markets' Marta.

LIBOR rates in many currencies have moved sharply higher as credit market problems accelerated and commercial banks grew wary of lending to each other. Banks are thought to be hoarding cash to build a cushion against possible future writedowns on bad mortgage assets and to square their books at year-end.

The unwillingness of banks to loan to each other has compounded both the liquidity and the confidence crises in the markets. These problems have restricted currency trade, too.

"If the Fed were only able to flood the system with dollars, the impact would be limited," Marta said. "But the cross currency swaps will help out all the currencies."

Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Senin, 10 Desember 2007

PPI news

ECB Stark Hints At Gloomier CPI View Than Projections-Report

Mon, Dec 10 2007, 11:45 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

ECB Stark Hints At Gloomier CPI View Than Projections-Report

FRANKFURT -(Dow Jones)- Euro-zone inflation could exceed European Central Bank and national central bank staff projections, ECB executive board member Juergen Stark said, according to news agency Market News.

Thursday, the ECB published the staff projections showing inflation between 2.0% and 3.0% in 2008, tapering off again to 1.2%-2.4% in 2009. The ECB governing council doesn't underwrite the projections.

Stark indicated that the governing council has come to a different conclusion than the staff projections.

"In the ECB governing council we came to another conclusion - that the risks to the stability of prices are, in fact, pointed upwards," Stark is quoted as saying.

His remarks suggest council members take a gloomier view on inflation developments than the projections indicate. The ECB defines price stability as an inflation rate just below 2%.

"That means that there exists the danger that higher inflation rates are to be expected later as well," he said. "to avoid that, we will monitor further developments very closely and then act in a timely manner in the event this should be necessary."

The ECB's governing council left interest rates unchanged Thursday, and the key refinancing minimum bid rate stands at 4.00%. At the policy briefing after the decision, Trichet reminded participants that the council doesn't underwrite the staff projections.

"They are an important input that we have, but they are an input. They aren't our own projections," Trichet said.

He noted that he said in November that the inflation hump evident in the euro zone now would be "more protracted" than previously forecast. The euro-zone inflation rate hit 3.0% in November, a 6.5-year high.

Stark, Trichet, and other ECB officials have emphasized that the bank won't tolerate the emergence of second-round effects, or the pass-through of higher energy and food prices into wages and general consumer prices.

"It is absolutely fundamental, a key working assumption, and we will do all that is necessary to ensure that there is no materialization of second-round effects," Trichet added Thursday.

Minggu, 09 Desember 2007

non pam payroll effect

NEW YORK (AP) - Treasury prices sold off sharply Friday, driving the 10-year yield well above 4 percent after the latest monthly employment report showed an acceptable jobs growth pace for a challenged economy.

The sense that the labor market is holding up lowered demand for Treasurys, a secure asset that generally performs well when investors are concerned about economic softness. Stocks fluctuated between losses and gains after the news.

The Labor Department said 94,000 jobs were added to the nation's payrolls in November and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.7 percent. October payroll growth was revised upward by 4,000 to 170,000.

Wages in November rose by 0.5 percent, but many economists expected a gain of just 0.3 percent. The Federal Reserve is known to carefully monitor wage inflation in its policy decisions. If wages continue to rise at the pace seen last month the Fed will be under more pressure to keep rates higher.

The Thomson/IFR Median estimate was for jobs growth of 100,000. Creation of 100,000 jobs per month was viewed by many economists as the lowest acceptable growth rate -- prior to the severe problems seen in the housing and credit markets in the second half of this year.

"This report is not good, but it is close to what was expected and in this environment, people will take it," said Joe Balestrino, fixed-income market strategist at Federated Investors Inc. "This is better than the report being well below expectations."

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped 1 25/32 to 101 4/32, with a yield of 4.11 percent, up from 4.02 percent late Thursday. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The 30-year long bond lost 1 23/16 to 106 27/32, with a yield of 4.58 percent, up from 4.50 late Thursday.

The 2-year note fell 6/32 to 100, with a yield of 3.12 percent, up from 3.04 percent.

The yield on the 3-month note inched up to 3.10 percent from 3.09 percent late Thursday, as the discount rate advanced to 3.03 percent from 3.02 percent.

After-hours trade sent some yields higher and others lower. The 10-year yield rose to 4.12 percent at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time, while the 30-year yield remained at 4.58 percent and the 2-year yield fell to 3.10 percent.

The 3-month yield rose to 3.12 percent and the discount rate advanced to 3.05 percent.

The fact that jobs creation was not more boisterous also will give the Fed the maneuvering room it needs if it wishes to cut interest rates at its Tuesday monetary policy meeting, he said.

The Fed this fall reduced the federal funds target by 0.75 percentage point to 4.50 percent. Pricing in the Fed funds futures market showed that investors overall expect the Fed to lower rate another 0.25 percentage point on Tuesday, given that credit markets are behaving warily ahead of the year-end and the housing market shows no sign of improvement. Some investors are betting on a 0.50 percentage point cut.

Another report also backed the view that the economy has multiple challenges, but is not in collapse.

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment for this month dropped to 74.5 from 76.1 in November. Thomson/IFR had forecast a 76.0. The latest result reflected consumer concerns about higher gas prices and weakness in the credit market.

Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.



Prudential Financial prices $3B in notes

Sabtu, 08 Desember 2007

tip handle risk forex trading

Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Jumat, 07 Desember 2007

Yen pada sesi penutupan sidewave

pada penutupan pasar hari ini yen terhadap sterling mengalami sidewave pada sesi perdagangan pasar asia yen sempat menguat di posisi 225.30 namu memasuki pasar eropa yen mengalami tekanan jual yang cukup signifikan dan hal ini menentukan sesi perdagangan setelah libur pasar nati apakah yen mampu menekan mata uang mayor ke posisi yang memaksa untuk mengalami tekanan jual atau yen sendiri yang mengalami tekanan jual

Kamis, 06 Desember 2007

forex tuday

source news by http://www.dailyfx.com

Paulson Plans to Bail Out Mortgage Lenders. Will this Help the U.S. dollar?
Wednesday, 05 December 2007 20:43:16 GMT
Printer Friendly | Email Article | RSS | Previous articles
Previous Articles

* Dec 06 - Paulson Plans to Bail Out Mortgage Lenders. Will this Help the U.S. dollar?
* Dec 05 - ECB, BoE: Two Central Banks, Two Vastly Different Monetary Policy Biases
* Dec 05 - USDJPY: Pattern Argues for Rally to 113.75
* Dec 04 - Do Hammer and Shooting Star Candlestick Formations Work in Forex?
* Dec 04 - US Fed: Can They Ignore Price Stability In Favor of Growth? The Markets Think So.
* Dec 04 - The Bank Of Canada Surprises Market With A Rate Cut, Dour Forecasts
* Dec 03 - Dollar's Destiny Depends on NFPs
* Nov 30 - New Currency Rooms on DailyFX
* Nov 29 - Will Canadian GDP Take USDCAD Above Parity?
* Nov 29 - Middle East Council Meeting This Weekend: How Could This Affect the US Dollar?
* Nov 28 - Fed Should not Hold Economy Hostage, Says Kohn, Signals Further Rate Cuts
* Nov 27 - Is The ECB Waiting For the US Fed to Make a Move?
* Nov 26 - Dollar: 1.50 in the Crosshairs?
* Nov 23 - How Does the US Dollar Perform Over the Month of December?
* Nov 21 - Will Currency Markets Repeat Strong Volatility on Thanksgiving?
* Nov 20 - How To Trade Canadian Retail Sales After The BoC's Comments And Weak CPI Data
* Nov 20 - US Fed: Futures Price In A 96% Chance Of A Rate Cut - Are The Markets Wrong?
* Nov 19 - Will Carry Trades Resume Their Losses?
* Nov 19 - Dollar At a Standstill - Which Way Next?
* Nov 16 - EURAUD: Our Weekly Trade Idea

Written by Antonio Sousa and David Rodriguez

Henry Paulson, the United States Treasury Secretary, is expected to unveil a plan to address the crisis in the U.S. credit markets which was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. subprime market. Nearly $US362 billion worth of sub-prime loans are due to be reset in the U.S. in 2008 and Paulson's main concern is that millions of homeowners will be forced into delinquency. Looking at the U.S. money markets one can easily see that Paulson has many reasons for such anxiety. This week, the spread between junk-rated corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries surged more 4 bps to trade close to 5.2 percent. Furthermore, the Dow Jones CDX North American Investment Grade index, the main North American Credit Default Swaps index, traded at 80 from 78 in the previous week.
Watch What the Fed Watches - Weekly Report


* Henry Paulson, the United States Treasury Secretary, is expected to unveil a plan to address the crisis in the U.S. credit markets which was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. subprime market.
* Nearly 362 billion U.S. dollars worth of sub-prime loans are due to be reset in the US in 2008 and Paulson's main concern is that millions of homeowners will be forced into delinquency.
* A shockingly strong ADP Employment Change report and a surge in MBA Mortgage Applications leave a decidedly mixed outlook for the domestic consumer through the past week of trade.a

Selasa, 04 Desember 2007

yen melemah terhadap mata uang major


Sempat menguat pada sesi perdagangan asia namun yen melemah tehadap

5 mata uang major

pada sesi perdagangan asia hari ini,namun suport terdekat ada pada perdagangan yen vs pound

adalah 228.46 jika padatitik ini yen meneruskan perlemahanya maka yen dalam tekanan jual

terhadap mata uang major,hal ini akan menjadikan para trader mengambil sikap wait n see

apakah boj akan melakukan carry trade lagi atau menambahkan suku bunga boj.salam trader

Senin, 03 Desember 2007

he yen fell versus high-yielding currencies as global

The yen fell versus high-yielding currencies as global stocks rebounded this week. Carry trades came back to the market as investors regained their risk appetite.

The greenback gained as US corporations squared positions to realize profits on financial statements by the end of the month. The euro dipped to lower 1.46 versus the dollar, and the sterling fell to below 2.06.

The euro zone CPI rose at a faster-than-expected rate of 3%, increasing the case for an unchanged rate decision at ECB¡¯s next policy meeting. In the medium term, the euro is more favorable than the dollar in terms of the interest rate outlook.

USD Softer, Awaits Data

by Korman Tam


The currency market has much to digest this week as traders look ahead to monetary policy decisions from several central banks, including the BoC, RBA, BoE and ECB. The greenback relinquished some of last week’s gains in early Monday trading, slipping against the sterling and yen. The major currency pairs will likely be dictated by a combination of sentiment over global interest rate differentials as well as any new revelations from the subprime debacle and credit crisis.

Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments last week heightened market expectations for a December rate cut. It remains unclear however, whether the anticipated ease will be a 25-bp or 50-bp cut. The economic reports over the coming week will be particularly important with the FOMC deliberating policy next Tuesday. In the session ahead, traders will look ahead to the November manufacturing ISM – forecasted to slip to 50.5 from 50.9. The main highlight this week will be Friday’s labor report, with non-farm payrolls forecasted to drop sharply in November to 75.0k, versus 166.0k from October.

Sterling Propped Higher By Manufacturing Data

Sabtu, 01 Desember 2007

Dollar Rebounds, Awaits Data

by Korman Tam

The greenback continued to rebound against the majors, rising to 109.27 versus the yen and 2.0585 against the sterling. The major currency pairs will take direction in the coming session from US economic reports, which include October durable goods orders and existing home sales. Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in October, versus a 1.7% decline from the previous month. The excluding transports durable goods orders are seen declining by 0.2% compared with a 0.5% increase previously. Meanwhile, existing home sales for October are expected to soften to 5.0 million units, down slightly from 5.04 million units from September.
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Cable Pressured Amid Mixed BoE Comments

Bank of England board member Sentance expressed the difficulty is setting monetary policy as a result of “the extent and likely duration of the slowdown in UK growth against the impact of inflationary pressures coming through from the global economy and their potential impact on inflation expectations”. Further, Sentance said it was important to continue monitoring the impact of financial market and credit developments on growth in major global economies. MPC member Lomax said that the Bank’s projections for lower rates are not promises, but foresee easing in the next two years.

In contrast, BoE Chief Economist Bean sounded a hawkish tone in an interview with a UK newspaper, saying “the backdrop to the Bank’s attempts to keep inflation in line with target is less favorable than it has been”. He said that “if the imported component of inflation is somewhat higher the domestically generated component needs to be somewhat lower to compensate”, suggesting that tighter monetary policy may be required to temper domestic inflation.

Dollar Rebounds, Awaits Data

by Korman Tam

The greenback continued to rebound against the majors, rising to 109.27 versus the yen and 2.0585 against the sterling. The major currency pairs will take direction in the coming session from US economic reports, which include October durable goods orders and existing home sales. Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in October, versus a 1.7% decline from the previous month. The excluding transports durable goods orders are seen declining by 0.2% compared with a 0.5% increase previously. Meanwhile, existing home sales for October are expected to soften to 5.0 million units, down slightly from 5.04 million units from September.
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Cable Pressured Amid Mixed BoE Comments

Bank of England board member Sentance expressed the difficulty is setting monetary policy as a result of “the extent and likely duration of the slowdown in UK growth against the impact of inflationary pressures coming through from the global economy and their potential impact on inflation expectations”. Further, Sentance said it was important to continue monitoring the impact of financial market and credit developments on growth in major global economies. MPC member Lomax said that the Bank’s projections for lower rates are not promises, but foresee easing in the next two years.

In contrast, BoE Chief Economist Bean sounded a hawkish tone in an interview with a UK newspaper, saying “the backdrop to the Bank’s attempts to keep inflation in line with target is less favorable than it has been”. He said that “if the imported component of inflation is somewhat higher the domestically generated component needs to be somewhat lower to compensate”, suggesting that tighter monetary policy may be required to temper domestic inflation.

USD Buoyed Ahead of Data

by Korman Tam

The dollar bounced higher in overnight trading, recovering across the board following yesterday’s sell-off. The greenback edged up to 2.0628 versus the sterling and 1.4730 against the euro. In the coming session, markets will look ahead to Q3 GDP, core PCE prices, weekly jobless claims and new home sales. The economy is seen expanding by 4.8% in the third quarter, up from 3.9% previously. New home sales are expected to slip to 750k units, down from 770k units in September.

The greenback recovered from the declines prompted by the heightened anticipation that the Fed will ease rates again in December following yesterday’s dovish comments from Fed Vice Chairman Kohn. We view the dollar’s strength as a short-term corrective move and look for the downtrend to remain in place against the major currencies.
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Cable Retreats

Bank of England Governor King spoke before Parliament’s Treasury Committee earlier today, saying the outlook for inflation and growth is less benign. King said the MPC remained focused on meeting the CPI target, but surveys are suggesting the economy is beginning to slow. King said financial market turmoil has tightened credit conditions, and sees the first signs of credit crunch effect likely in housing and property markets. He anticipates output growth to slow while CPI to increase in the short term. King reiterated the Bank remained ready to take further measures to ensure the overnight rate remained in line with the bank rate. Meanwhile, Bank of England board member Blanchflower said that the fear of recession in the US is greater than others think, placing a 50% likelihood for a recession in the US.

This article contains the following sections:

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Cable Retreats

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USD Buoyed Ahead of Data by Korman Tam

The dollar bounced higher in overnight trading, recovering across the board following yesterday’s sell-off. The greenback edged up to 2.0628 versus the sterling and 1.4730 against the euro. In the coming session, markets will look ahead to Q3 GDP, core PCE prices, weekly jobless claims and new home sales. The economy is seen expanding by 4.8% in the third quarter, up from 3.9% previously. New home sales are expected to slip to 750k units, down from 770k units in September.

The greenback recovered from the declines prompted by the heightened anticipation that the Fed will ease rates again in December following yesterday’s dovish comments from Fed Vice Chairman Kohn. We view the dollar’s strength as a short-term corrective move and look for the downtrend to remain in place against the major currencies.
Advertisement


Cable Retreats

Bank of England Governor King spoke before Parliament’s Treasury Committee earlier today, saying the outlook for inflation and growth is less benign. King said the MPC remained focused on meeting the CPI target, but surveys are suggesting the economy is beginning to slow. King said financial market turmoil has tightened credit conditions, and sees the first signs of credit crunch effect likely in housing and property markets. He anticipates output growth to slow while CPI to increase in the short term. King reiterated the Bank remained ready to take further measures to ensure the overnight rate remained in line with the bank rate. Meanwhile, Bank of England board member Blanchflower said that the fear of recession in the US is greater than others think, placing a 50% likelihood for a recession in the US.

USD Buoyed Ahead of Data

by Korman Tam

The dollar bounced higher in overnight trading, recovering across the board following yesterday’s sell-off. The greenback edged up to 2.0628 versus the sterling and 1.4730 against the euro. In the coming session, markets will look ahead to Q3 GDP, core PCE prices, weekly jobless claims and new home sales. The economy is seen expanding by 4.8% in the third quarter, up from 3.9% previously. New home sales are expected to slip to 750k units, down from 770k units in September.

The greenback recovered from the declines prompted by the heightened anticipation that the Fed will ease rates again in December following yesterday’s dovish comments from Fed Vice Chairman Kohn. We view the dollar’s strength as a short-term corrective move and look for the downtrend to remain in place against the major currencies.
Advertisement


Cable Retreats

Bank of England Governor King spoke before Parliament’s Treasury Committee earlier today, saying the outlook for inflation and growth is less benign. King said the MPC remained focused on meeting the CPI target, but surveys are suggesting the economy is beginning to slow. King said financial market turmoil has tightened credit conditions, and sees the first signs of credit crunch effect likely in housing and property markets. He anticipates output growth to slow while CPI to increase in the short term. King reiterated the Bank remained ready to take further measures to ensure the overnight rate remained in line with the bank rate. Meanwhile, Bank of England board member Blanchflower said that the fear of recession in the US is greater than others think, placing a 50% likelihood for a recession in the US.

This article contains the following sections:

#


Cable Retreats

You need to be logged in to Forexnews to view the remainder of this article. Please login with your username and password at the top left corner of the site, or Request Free username and password to receive full access.



USD Buoyed Ahead of Data by Korman Tam

The dollar bounced higher in overnight trading, recovering across the board following yesterday’s sell-off. The greenback edged up to 2.0628 versus the sterling and 1.4730 against the euro. In the coming session, markets will look ahead to Q3 GDP, core PCE prices, weekly jobless claims and new home sales. The economy is seen expanding by 4.8% in the third quarter, up from 3.9% previously. New home sales are expected to slip to 750k units, down from 770k units in September.

The greenback recovered from the declines prompted by the heightened anticipation that the Fed will ease rates again in December following yesterday’s dovish comments from Fed Vice Chairman Kohn. We view the dollar’s strength as a short-term corrective move and look for the downtrend to remain in place against the major currencies.
Advertisement


Cable Retreats

Bank of England Governor King spoke before Parliament’s Treasury Committee earlier today, saying the outlook for inflation and growth is less benign. King said the MPC remained focused on meeting the CPI target, but surveys are suggesting the economy is beginning to slow. King said financial market turmoil has tightened credit conditions, and sees the first signs of credit crunch effect likely in housing and property markets. He anticipates output growth to slow while CPI to increase in the short term. King reiterated the Bank remained ready to take further measures to ensure the overnight rate remained in line with the bank rate. Meanwhile, Bank of England board member Blanchflower said that the fear of recession in the US is greater than others think, placing a 50% likelihood for a recession in the US.

Euro and Sterling Eased vs Dollar

by Yan Xu


The euro and sterling eased versus the dollar as the subprime concern spread from US to European banks. The euro remained below 1.48 against the dollar, and the sterling fell to as low as 2.06.

The greenback was little changed after mixed data this morning. US third quarter GDP rose 4.9%, up from the previous reading of 3.5%. GDP deflator increased from 0.7% to 0.9%, above the estimate of 0.8%. US PCE index, an inflation gauge, remained at 1.7% in the third quarter as expected. US weekly jobless claims rose 22k to 352k, above the estimate of 332k.

Besides, US new home sales fell from 770k to 728k in October, below the estimate of 750k. This confirmed the expectation that the nation’s housing sector is slowing.

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Yen Fall as Global Stocks Surge


by Yan Xu


The yen fell versus high-yielding currencies as global stocks rebounded this week. Carry trades came back to the market as investors regained their risk appetite.

The greenback gained as US corporations squared positions to realize profits on financial statements by the end of the month. The euro dipped to lower 1.46 versus the dollar, and the sterling fell to below 2.06.

The euro zone CPI rose at a faster-than-expected rate of 3%, increasing the case for an unchanged rate decision at ECB¡¯s next policy meeting. In the medium term, the euro is more favorable than the dollar in terms of the interest rate outlook.

Aussie dollar subdued by credit market strains


Friday November 30, 2007, 10:25 am


SYDNEY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar consolidated above 88 U.S. cents on Friday, but well below this week's peak as fresh strains in credit markets kept investors away from risky asstes such as higher-yielding currencies.

* Worries about a global slowdown and its impact on demand for commodities also kept investors from going long on the Australian dollar. Australia is a big exporter of natural resources and buoyant demand for commodities has seen the country's terms of trade rise to a three decade high.

* Latest data from the United States underlined views that the housing slump and tight credit conditions were taking a toll on the economy and the Federal Reserve would have to move to cut interest rates next month.

* The U.S. Commerce Department said median home sales prices in October tumbled at the steepest rate since 1970 on a year-on-year basis to $217,800, a 13 percent drop [nN29354577].

* Separately, the Labor Department said new claims for unemployment aid jumped by 23,000 last week to the highest since February, though the figure might have been affected by the fact that last Thursday was the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday [nN29354577].

* At 9:40 a.m. (2340 GMT), the Aussie AUD= was at $0.8813/16, slightly lower than $0.8826/30 late here on Thursday. It had struck a one-week high of $0.8921 Wednesday, when a recovery in risk appetite lifted stocks and boosted higher-yielding currencies.

* Soaring inter-bank rates LIBOR reminded wary investors the days of tight liquidity were far from over. Signs that the crisis was getting worse came as German banks rallied to rescue subprime casualty IKB IKBG.DE for the second time in four months [nL29885935].

* Standard and Poor's cut the ratings on 106 classes from 22 cash flow and hybrid collateralised debt obligations, highlighting the ongoing turmoil caused by the subprime mess in the United States and banks' exposure to toxic debt [nWNA7389].

* The Aussie was at 96.74/84 yen, slightly lower than 96.97/97.07 yen late here on Thursday, as investors remained wary about risky carry trades as they sought safe-haven assets. It had struck a 1-week high on Wednesday.

* Focus is now on Australia's third-quarter current account deficit data to be released at 11:30 a.m. (0030 GMT). A Reuters poll showed market forecasts centred on a median deficit of A$16.40 billion ($14.5 billion) for the three months to the end of September. Also to be released is private sector credit data from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

* Data on Thursday showed business investments had slowed in the third quarter, prompting some analysts to scale back forecasts for a robust GDP number.

* Australian bond futures rose, taking their cue from U.S. Treasuries which gained on renewed safe-haven buying with weak economic data also boosting expectations of a hefty rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

European Stocks Rise Most Since June on Rate-Cut Speculation


By Andreas Hippin


Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks had their biggest weekly gain since June on speculation the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to prevent credit-market losses from dragging the world's biggest economy into a recession.

``The situation is serious enough to expect further rate cuts,'' said Guenther Gerstenberger, a fund manager at Oberursel, Germany-based PEH Wertpapier AG, which oversees the equivalent of $5.5 billion. ``In the medium term we'll see strong equity markets.''

Commodity stocks rose the most in 10 weeks, led by BHP Billiton Ltd., Anglo American Plc and Rio Tinto Group. Barclays Plc and Commerzbank AG paced an advance of financial stocks after strategic buyers from emerging-market countries bought stakes in Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, and Fortis of Belgium.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 3.5 percent to 370.36 this week. Still, the gauge dropped 4.7 percent in November for the worst monthly performance since May 2006 as concern mounted that credit-market turmoil may damp economic and profit growth.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Nov. 29 policy makers must decide whether ``renewed turbulence'' in financial markets has shifted the risks between growth and inflation, signaling the Fed's concern that credit-market losses may be expanding into the broader economy.

The remarks stoked investors' expectations for the Fed to lower interest rates on Dec. 11. Fed funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show traders see a 100 percent chance of a reduction in the benchmark rate next month.

Swedish Decline

On Nov. 26, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index extended its drop to 10.1 percent from its Oct. 9 record. A fall of 10 percent for a benchmark is commonly considered a ``correction.''

National benchmarks gained in all 18 western European markets this week. Germany's DAX Index advanced 3.4 percent. France's CAC 40 added 2.7 percent, as did the U.K.'s FTSE 100. The Stoxx 50 increased 3.4 percent, and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the euro region, rose 3 percent.

The OMX Stockholm 30 Index increased 4.5 percent in the last three trading days. As of the close on Nov. 27, the index had lost 19.3 percent from its seven-year high reached on July 16. A loss of 20 percent is considered the beginning of a bear market.

The Dow Jones Stoxx Basic Resource Index climbed 7.3 percent this week, the most since September, as prices for copper, tin and lead increased, and amid renewed takeover speculation.

As of the close of European equity markets, copper gained 4.6 percent in the past five trading days, rising to more than $7,000 a metric ton and heading for the biggest weekly gain since September.

Mining Companies

``As long as there are no signs of a slowdown in the emerging markets, commodity stocks are attractive,'' said Carsten Klude, who helps manage $20 billion as head of investment strategies at M.M. Warburg & Co. in Hamburg.

BHP Billiton gained 2.5 percent. Rio Tinto added 6.1 percent. Anglo American rose 10 percent.

BHP, under pressure from investors to increase its unsolicited $128 billion offer for Rio Tinto Group, said Nov. 28 competitors couldn't match the proposal and it wouldn't speculate on making a higher bid.

Vedanta Resources Plc jumped 13 percent on speculation India's largest copper and zinc producer will receive a takeover bid. The company's London-based spokesman Robin Walker said Nov. 29 the company isn't talking ``with any parties.''

Bank shares rebounded from a two-year low after Abu Dhabi's government said it will buy as much as 4.9 percent in Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, and China's second-biggest insurance company bought a stake in Belgium's Fortis.

`Value'

``Long-term investors are starting to see value in the financial industry,'' said Sergi Martin Amoros, who helps oversee $5.3 billion at Credit Andorra SA in Andorra. ``Bad news is still to come, but we will see plenty of opportunities. We are close to an end of this nightmare.''

Barclays jumped 10 percent. The U.K.'s third-biggest bank said Nov. 27 pretax profit in 2007 will be ``broadly in line'' with analysts' average estimate of about 7.1 billion pounds ($15 billion). The bank didn't provide guidance for 2008.

Commerzbank, Germany's second-largest lender, advanced 14 percent.

Fortis increased 7.3 percent. Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. bought a 4.2 percent stake in Belgium's biggest financial- services company for 1.81 billion euros ($2.7 billion) in the largest overseas acquisition by a Chinese insurer.

Northern Rock Plc advanced 37 percent after billionaire Richard Branson's Virgin Group Ltd. won British government support to buy the mortgage lender bailed out two months ago by the Bank of England.

Porsche

``There is much more to go in this subprime issue,'' said Sailesh Bhundia, who helps manage $2.4 billion at EFG Asset Management in London. ``I don't think financial stocks will be able to lead the broader market higher, they need time to restore their balance sheets.''

Anglo Irish Bank Plc rose 27 percent. Ireland's third- largest bank posted a 52 percent gain in full-year profit to 998 million euros as business and property lending increased at home and the company expanded in the U.K. and U.S.

Porsche SE jumped 9.5 percent. The maker of the 911 sports car said Nov. 28 four-month sales gained 15 percent on demand for an upgraded Cayenne sport-utility vehicle and that it's ``carefully optimistic'' about full-year performance.

Vedior NV soared 45 percent, the steepest gain in the Stoxx 600 this week. The second-biggest Dutch provider of temporary employment received an indicative takeover proposal from Randstad Holding NV, the world's third-largest staffing company.

The two Dutch companies are holding talks that may lead to a public offer by Randstad, Amsterdam-based Vedior said.

Signet Group Plc plummeted 20 percent, the steepest drop in the Stoxx 600. The world's largest jewelry store owner reported a 69 percent decrease in third-quarter profit and said it's unlikely to meet analysts' full-year estimates because of a slump in U.S. sales.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andreas Hippin in Frankfurt at ahippin@bloomberg.net .

Moody's Takes Ratings Action on Six of Citigroup's Seven SIV




By Shannon D. Harrington

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Moody's Investors Service may cut the top ratings on six of Citigroup Inc.'s seven structured investment vehicles as part of a review of $130 billion in SIV debt.

The net asset value of the $64.9 billion in Citigroup SIVs dropped to below or near 60 percent, prompting the ratings action, Moody's said in a statement yesterday. The junior notes of three of the funds have been downgraded to below investment grade.

SIVs, which sell short-term debt to buy longer-term, higher-yielding assets, were shut out of the short-term market as losses on subprime mortgage securities prompted investors to retreat from all but the safest of securities. Unable to finance themselves, three SIVs have defaulted and others are being bailed out by their sponsors. The world's 30 SIVs have more than $300 billion of assets.

``In recent weeks, Moody's has observed material declines in market value across most asset classes in SIV portfolios,'' the ratings company said in the statement.

Moody's said it surveyed 20 SIVs since Nov. 7 and expanded its review after noticing ``significant additional deterioration'' in asset values.

Moody's cut $14 billion in debt in all, mostly capital notes that rank below commercial paper and medium-term notes and are usually the first to absorb losses, Henry Tabe, managing director in charge of structured finance, said in a telephone interview. The ratings company placed $105 billion of debt on review for a downgrade and confirmed the ratings on $11 billion, Tabe said.

Links Finance Corp., a SIV sponsored by Bank of Montreal with $19.1 billion of debt, also had its junior notes cut and may have the remainder downgraded, Moody's said.

`Continued Deterioration'

SIV assets on average are 38 percent financial institution debt, 16 percent asset-backed securities and 12 percent collateralized debt obligations, Moody's said.

The downgrades are ``a reflection of the continued deterioration in market value of SIV portfolios combined with the sector's inability to refinance maturing liabilities,'' Moody's said. Net asset values have slumped to 55 percent from 102 percent in June, Moody's said, including the NAVs of the three defaulted SIVs.

Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank by assets, provided $7.6 billion of emergency financing to the seven SIVs it runs earlier this month after they were unable to repay maturing debt.

Citigroup, based in New York, created the first SIV in 1988 and is the largest manager.

The SIVs' struggle for survival, and the threat of having their assets dumped on the market, prompted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to broker talks with Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. to form an $80 billion fund to help bail them out.

Centauri, Beta

HSBC Holdings Plc of London this week said it will take on $45 billion of assets from the two SIVs it manages after they were unable to finance themselves. SIVs set up by Dusseldorf- based lender IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG and London-based Cheyne Capital Management Ltd. defaulted last month after investors stopped buying their asset-backed commercial paper.

Citigroup said in a Nov. 5 regulatory filing that it ``will not take actions that will require the company to consolidate the SIVs.'' The strategy ``remains unchanged from the disclosures in the third quarter'' filing, spokesman Jon Diat said yesterday in an e-mail statement. ``We continue to focus on liquidity and reducing leverage,'' Diat said. Citigroup's SIV assets have dropped to $66 billion from $83 billion on Sept. 30, Diat said.

Centauri Corp., the largest SIV run by Citigroup with $16.9 billion of debt, had its P1 commercial paper rating placed on review for downgrade as well as its AAA medium-term note program, Moody's said. Centauri's net asset value dropped to 60 percent from 85 percent since Sept. 5, Moody's said.

Beta Finance Corp., the second-largest Citigroup SIV with $16 billion of debt, had its senior debt ratings placed on review for downgrade after its net asset value declined to 60 percent from 87 percent, Moody's said.

Sedna, Dorada

Four other Citigroup SIVs, Sedna Finance Corp., with $10.7 billion of debt, Five Finance Corp., with $10.3 billion, Dorada Corp. with $8.5 billion, and Zela Finance Corp., with $2.5 billion, had their P1 commercial paper rating and AAA medium- term note programs placed on review, Moody's said.

Sedna's net asset value dropped to 56 percent, Five's declined to 63 percent, Dorada dropped to 62 percent and Zela's fell to 61 percent. A seventh Citigroup SIV, Vetra Finance Corp., wasn't part of the review.

The capital notes of Dorada, Beta and Centauri were reduced 11 levels to Caa3 from Baa1.

Orion, Links

Orion Finance Corp., a SIV managed by Eiger Capital with $835 million of debt, had its P1 commercial paper ratings downgraded to Not Prime, and its AAA medium-term note program to Baa3. Orion's net asset value dropped to 54 percent from 61 percent since Sept. 5, Moody's said.

Links Finance's net asset value declined to 78 percent from 94 percent since a Sept. 5 review, Moody's said. The SIV's AAA ratings may be cut after a review that will be completed within a week, Moody's said. Links' standard capital notes were cut 11 levels to the fourth-lowest ranking.

Toronto-based Bank of Montreal spokesman Ralph Marranca didn't immediately return a call seeking comment.

Separately, Moody's downgraded $470 million in notes issued by Duke Funding High Grade II-S/EGAM I Ltd. and Duke Funding High Grade II-S /EGAM I LLC, managed by Greenwich, Connecticut- based Ellington Global Asset Management LLC. Duke's capital net asset value declined to 21 percent on Nov. 23 from 69 percent Oct. 26. Moody's cut $170 million of Duke's notes from Aaa to Caa2 the fourth-lowest junk rating. Duke is known as an SIV- lite, which are designed as temporary vehicles.

To contact the reporter for this story: Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net .

Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 30/11/2007


Friday November 30, 2007, 11:30 am
Market Summary

Despite poor data, USD rallies against majors. Concerns of liquidity issues in Europe.

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strengthened against the majors in the overnight session despite poor data locally. There are lingering concerns that liquidity issues will spread to European banks whilst Goldman Sachs Group Inc. announced that the US dollars decline may be ending. GDP for the Q3 came in slightly better than expected at 4.9% compared to a 4.8% estimate whilst jobless claims disappointed rising to 352k from a 332k estimate. New home sales came in less than expected but higher than previous result at 728k. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 5pts (+0.2%) while the Dow Jones moved up by 22 points (+0.17%). Crude oil rallied after an explosion at a pipeline in Canada causing it to rise by US38c a barrel to US$91.00. Looking ahead, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is due to speak today as well as Poole and Kroszner. Core PCE and Chicago PMI are due for release.

The Euro (EUR) retreated against the greenback in light of concerns that European banks may be unwilling to lend funds as normal and that this is spreading. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4723 and a high of 1.4843 before closing the day at 1.4753. Looking ahead, CPI, GDP, and confidence indicators are due out today.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) recouped some losses despite lingering nervousness about the state of credit markets. All eyes will be on a host of data from the land of the rising sun due out today which could dictate policy moves ahead. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 109.47 and a high of 110.31 before closing the day at 109.88. Looking ahead, jobless rate, CPI, and nationwide house prices are due out today. UPDATE: Household spending came in as expected at +0.6%, Nationwide Core CPI came in at +0.1% beating expectations of unchanged, Nationwide CPI came in at +0.3% compared to -0.2% previously and unemployment remained steady at 4%.

The Sterling (GBP) fell in the overnight session as Governor King made dovish comments to a parliamentary committee hearing, fueling speculation of a rate cut from the UK sooner rather than later. Mortgage approvals fell to their lowest level in 3 years to 88k from a previous result of 100k and a 97k expectation. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 2.0595 and a high of 2.0823 before closing the session at 2.0615.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pulled back also against the US Dollar thanks in part to a sell-off around 0.8% in AUDJPY. CAPEX figures for Q3 came disappointingly lower than expected. CAPEX fell -6.5% from +6.5% previously and compared to a +1.7% estimate. The AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.8777 and a high of 0.8904 before closing the day at 0.8825.

Gold (XAU) was weaker inline with other metals. Gold fell by US$8.70 to US$795.10 an ounce.
Technical Commentary

*
Euro 1.4760

Initial support at 1.4712 (Nov 28 low) followed by 1.4692 (61.8% retracement of the 1.4521 to 1.4968 advance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Nov 28 high) followed by 1.4908 (Nov 27 high).
*
Yen 109.70

Initial support is located at 108.27 (Nov 28 low) followed by 107.23 (Nov 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 110.58 (Nov 20 high) followed by 111.76 (Nov 14 high)
*
Pound - 2.0625

Initial support at 2.0584 (Nov 28 low) followed by 2.0519 (Nov 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0833 (Nov 28 high) followed by 2.0846 (Nov 14 high)
*
Australian Dollar - 0.8830

Initial support a 0.872 (Nov 28 low) followed by 0.8654 (Nov 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8921 (Nov 28 high) followed by 0.8939 (38.2% retracement of the 0.9400 to 0.8654 decline)
*
Gold - 793.00

Initial support at 791.8 (Nov 28 low) followed by 773.0 (Nov 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 815.7 (Nov 28 high) followed by 829.4 (November 27 high)
This information was provided by Easy Forex.

Australian Dollar Little Changed

Australian Dollar Little Changed

Friday November 30, 2007, 12:49 pm
Commentary: There is no change to the AUDUSD pattern. “The decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline. This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399. The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753. In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.”

This information was provided by Forex Capital Markets